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OtherExpires

Will Southampton qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?

Probability

24¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

-25.5pp

24h Vol

$167.02

Liquidity

$36.60

Probability (last 7 days)

-24.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:05
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 26pp over 24h

    Now 24¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 46.4¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 29¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 16:05Price

    Probability down -24.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -24.1pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -41.8pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -43.8pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -43.0pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -45.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -44.3pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -39.5pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -31.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 English Premier League season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the EPL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (46.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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