Will SpaceX have exactly 15 launches in April?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.3pp
24h Vol
$36.00
Liquidity
$2.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $2.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 104.9h
- 15:05SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).