Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?
Probability
93¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$9.2K
Liquidity
$44.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 93¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3779h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3778.6h
- 13:26SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3779h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 91¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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