Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.6pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$49.99
Liquidity
$3.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $3.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5977.1h
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.8pp at 2d ago (to 6¢).
Show top 8 of 30 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -5.9pp → 8¢
- 20:00 · -5.4pp → 8¢
- 19:00 · -5.4pp → 8¢
- 17:00 · -5.4pp → 8¢
- 10:00 · -5.5pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -7.1pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -7.8pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -7.3pp → 6¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occursTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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