Wallet profile

Grumpy-Urn

0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f

activity 92/100

Wallet digest

whale

Activity score

92/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$232.1K

Total PnL

$-9.5K

Realised

$31.3K

Win rate

59%

106 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

71/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

59% win rate over 106 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

48 live trades, 3 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

106 closed markets, 59% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

70%

Sample

limited

3 ledger trades

Top market concentration

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

$7.7K · 39% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?39% of recorded volume$7.7KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?31% of recorded volume$6.1KWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?30% of recorded volume$5.9K

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry13 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk43 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
48
Avg trade size
$318.53
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 28, 02:56 UTC
Last active
Jul 28, 19:03 UTC
Win rate sample
106 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 20:11:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data