Grumpy-Urn
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$181.7K
Total PnL
$18.4K
Realised
$37.2K
Win rate
64%
127 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
26383 shares @ 95.7¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$26.0K
$706.52
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
36065 shares @ 39.6¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.2K
$7.9K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
15000 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.4K
$225.01
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
14502 shares @ 70.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$8.5K
$-1.7K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
14094 shares @ 43.5¢·now 54.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.7K
$1.5K
- YES
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
9043 shares @ 75.8¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.8K
$-29.21
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
7839 shares @ 57.5¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.9K
$388.22
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
4702 shares @ 78.3¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$4.6K
$932.92
- NO
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
4761 shares @ 84.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.6K
$578.98
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
5900 shares @ 38.5¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.3K
$2.0K
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026?$9.92Jun 13, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$832.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$312.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$139.20Jun 13, 15:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?$8.40Jun 13, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$552.00Jun 13, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$90.00Jun 13, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$92.03Jun 13, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.01Jun 13, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.04Jun 13, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$0.94Jun 13, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$1.98Jun 13, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$460.00Jun 13, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$330.00Jun 13, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$472.00Jun 13, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$142.00Jun 13, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$108.00Jun 13, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$182.13Jun 13, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$151.20Jun 13, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$42.80Jun 13, 14:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$19.7K
Trades
3
Buy share
70%
Window
May 22, 17:30 UTC → Jun 2, 09:45 UTC
- SELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$5.9K@91¢Jun 2, 09:45 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$7.7K@36¢May 22, 17:29 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$6.1K@30¢May 22, 17:29 UTC
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$19.7K
3 trades
Buy share
70%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
$7.7K · 39% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $266.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 13:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 16:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 127 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.