Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+1.1pp
24h Vol
$200.53
Liquidity
$3.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 5¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $3.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.1h
- 14:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 6¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).