Will Tarik Skubal win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
Probability
26¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 26¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4810h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4810.3h
- 13:44SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4810h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:44PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 25¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 26¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 26¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 26¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 25¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 31¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 38¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 37¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 32¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).