Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Probability
30¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-2.1pp
24h Vol
$20.00
Liquidity
$2.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+26.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 30¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $2.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.1h
- 13:56SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.3pp
to 30¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 30¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.1pp
to 29¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 31¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.8pp
to 29¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.9pp
to 32¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 33¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.3pp
to 31¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.8pp
to 32¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 32¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 30¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.8pp
to 29¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.8pp
to 32¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 30¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.7pp
to 28¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.7pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.2pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.3pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.9pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.2pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.9pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.3pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.2pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.1pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.2pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.2pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.7pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).