Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?

1. 1

   Up 4pp over 24h

   Now 47¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 7403h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 38.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027. Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen. Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.