Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?
Probability
57¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-10.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$545.34
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 11pp over 24h
Now 57¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 26.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6009.4h
- 19:38SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-10.5pp over the last 24h, now 57¢.
Biggest hourly move: +52.5pp at 2d ago (to 70¢).
Show all 27 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:37 · -6.5pp → 57¢
- 18:00 · -6.0pp → 57¢
- 12:00 · -5.0pp → 63¢
- 11:00 · -5.0pp → 63¢
- 09:00 · +24.0pp → 63¢
- 08:00 · +24.0pp → 63¢
- 06:00 · +24.5pp → 63¢
- 05:00 · +23.5pp → 62¢
- 03:00 · +23.5pp → 62¢
- 02:00 · +23.5pp → 62¢
- 00:00 · +23.5pp → 62¢
- 23:00 · +23.5pp → 62¢
- 21:00 · +29.5pp → 68¢
- 20:00 · +29.0pp → 68¢
- 1d ago · +28.5pp → 69¢
- 1d ago · +29.5pp → 70¢
- 1d ago · +30.0pp → 70¢
- 1d ago · +33.5pp → 74¢
- 1d ago · +31.5pp → 71¢
- 1d ago · +40.5pp → 72¢
- 1d ago · +39.5pp → 73¢
- 2d ago · +38.5pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · +33.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · +30.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · +29.5pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · +52.5pp → 70¢
- 2d ago · +51.0pp → 66¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized AAVE TVL datapoint has a value lower than the TVL specified in the title on any day between the date of this market's creation and December 31. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the Aave page available at https://defillama.com/protocol/aave/, with TVL displayed in USD on the daily chart. The TVL value used for resolution will be the “TVL” value displayed for each daily bar. A daily bar will be considered finalized once the next day’s bar is published. If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used. If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- defillama.comSource not classifiedextracted · lowdefillama.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (26.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.