Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?
Probability
32¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$263.27
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 45.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 32¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 32¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 32¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 32¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 32¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 32¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 32¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 32¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 32¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 32¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 32¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.0pp
to 32¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.0pp
to 32¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.0pp
to 32¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.0pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 48¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the BaAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (45.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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