Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 1¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1304h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $5.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.