Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30?
Probability
14¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+8.7pp
24h Vol
$40.40
Liquidity
$30.35
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 14¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 135h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 23.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 134.8h
- 13:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 135h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:12PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 14¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 14¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.9pp
to 14¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 14¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 14¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 14¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 14¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 14¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (23.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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