Will the Cleveland Guardians clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?
Probability
63¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+6.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$382.71
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 63¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3726h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 63.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3726.1h
- 17:54SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3726h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+6.5pp over the last 24h, now 63¢.
Biggest hourly move: +12.5pp at 22:00 (to 63¢).
Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +4.0pp → 63¢
- 15:00 · -4.5pp → 60¢
- 12:00 · -3.5pp → 60¢
- 10:00 · -3.5pp → 54¢
- 07:00 · +7.5pp → 60¢
- 05:00 · -10.5pp → 52¢
- 03:00 · +10.0pp → 62¢
- 02:00 · +6.0pp → 60¢
- 00:00 · -6.5pp → 56¢
- 22:00 · +12.5pp → 63¢
- 18:00 · -8.0pp → 56¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 60¢
- 1d ago · -6.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 57¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 58¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 63¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 65¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 53¢
- 2d ago · -11.0pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · -9.5pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 59¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 56¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 59¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 59¢
- 3d ago · +9.5pp → 65¢
- 3d ago · -8.5pp → 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a spot in the 2026 MLB Playoffs per the rules of the MLB. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 MLB Playoffs (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". Any tiebreaker or “Game 163” will not be considered part of the MLB Playoffs. If the 2026 MLB Playoffs are cancelled, postponed to begin after October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the full 12-team playoff field has not been officially confirmed by MLB within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB and/or the clinching team; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (63.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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