Will the Conservative Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

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   Down 15pp over 24h

   Now 48¢; -12.0pp in the last hour.

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   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 274h with open resolution ambiguity.

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   Wide spread — 44.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Conservative Party wins at least the listed number of council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of the Conservative Party if they are officially nominated by the Conservative Party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with the Conservative Party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.