Will the DHS shutdown end between May 4-10 2026?
Probability
16¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+13.4pp
24h Vol
$316.67
Liquidity
$557.36
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of Homeland Security shutdown which began on FebruaryTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 13pp over 24h
Now 16¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 18.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2208.4h
- 23:34SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+13.4pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Biggest hourly move: +49.4pp at 1d ago (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 36 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +14.5pp → 16¢
- 21:00 · +12.0pp → 14¢
- 20:00 · +11.6pp → 14¢
- 1d ago · +27.0pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · +27.0pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · +49.4pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · +8.2pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · +6.9pp → 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of Homeland Security shutdown which began on FebruaryTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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