Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?
Probability
43¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$18.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 17:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 43¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 41¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 41¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 41¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 41¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 41¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 41¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 54¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on FebruaryOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.