Will the Ever Given exit the Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal by July 25?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 25, 2021
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 25, 2021
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will the Ever Given exit the Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal by July 25? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will the Ever Given exit the Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal by July 25? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a market on whether the Ever Given container ship (IMO: 9811000, MMSI 353136000) will be allowed to exit the Great Bitter Lake area, where it is currently being held by Egyptian authorities in the Suez Canal, by July 25, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. For the purpose of this market, exiting the Great Bitter Lake area will mean that the Ever Given has a latitude higher than 30.43000 N (i.e. about a mile north of the northern tip of Great Bitter Lake) or lower than 30.15000 N (i.e. about a mile south of the southern tip of the Little Bitter Lake), by the resolution date. The resolution source for this for this market will be the Ever Given's latitude and longitude coordinates, as tracked by Vessel Finder and displayed in their “Position & Voyage Data” table (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000).
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
suez canalReason
Question text contains "suez canal" — matched the Geopolitics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Ever Given exit the Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal by July 25?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 16:42:02 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 25, 2021 (2021-07-25T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $48.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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