Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at least 250k?
Probability
84¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+72.5pp
24h Vol
$347.82
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 73pp over 24h
Now 84¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 128h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $1.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 128.1h
- 15:51SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 128h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 77¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 77¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 76¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 75¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 77¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 74¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 74¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 74¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 76¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 74¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 75¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 45¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 37¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -50.0pp
to 10¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -44.5pp
to 10¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -55.0pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -41.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -40.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 45¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 62¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 62¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 57¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 61¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 64¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily DoubleAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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