Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win fewer than 10 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Probability
8¢
1h
+1.1pp
24h
+7.2pp
24h Vol
$23.57
Liquidity
$470.98
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 8¢; +1.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 14.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 13:58PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 7¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 8¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 7¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 8¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 6¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 7¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.8pp
to 8¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.8pp
to 8¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.8pp
to 8¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.6pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (14.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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