Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?

1. 1

   Up 4pp over 24h

   Now 8¢; -0.7pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Heavy volume on this book — 1.6× turnover

   $36.2k traded against $23.1k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 344h with open resolution ambiguity.

4. 4

   Thin liquidity

   Only $23.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the listed date (Pakistan Standard Time) on which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If no qualifying meeting occurs by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM Pakistan Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No Meeting before May 11”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.