Will the Powerball jackpot hit $1 billion by May 31?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$25.00
Liquidity
$5.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $5.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 850.4h
- 13:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:36PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 2¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 2¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 5¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 3¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 3¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 3¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 2¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 4¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 2¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 4¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 3¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 2¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 2¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 2¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
6- 1¢-1.9pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.0M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 26¢-10.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $781.5K
- 0¢-39.5pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $766.3K
- 59¢-1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $757.3K
- 60¢+2.0pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $693.0K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Powerball jackpot is equal to or greater than $1 billion on any drawing between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once any Powerball jackpot reaches or exceeds the value specified in the title, or once the estimated jackpot on May 31, 2026, is finalized and no jackpot within the specified timeframe has been equal to or greater than that value. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Powerball (https://www.powerball.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).