Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 12?
Probability
22¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$13.34
Liquidity
$5.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 47h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 22¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 47h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 47 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 47.1h
- 16:54SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 47h.
Price movement
+8.5pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.0pp at 2d ago (to 11¢).
Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -14.5pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -14.5pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · -13.5pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -13.5pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -14.0pp → 8¢
- 2d ago · -21.0pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · -19.0pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -14.0pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
ethereumReason
Question text contains "ethereum" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 12?"?
As of Sun, 10 May 2026 16:54:26 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +8.5pp in the last 24 hours, +1.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$13.34 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $167.94. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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