Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?
Probability
78¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$310.91
Liquidity
$2.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 229.3h
- 10:44SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 229h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 80¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 81¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 82¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 79¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 80¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 83¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 85¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 77¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meetAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).