Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the May decision?
Probability
27¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$61.75
Liquidity
$2.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 761.6h
- 06:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 762h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 28¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 29¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 29¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 29¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 30¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decisionAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).