Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?
Probability
94¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$346.85
Liquidity
$15.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 94¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Slovenian government formed after the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following a successful confirmation vote in the Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor), with ministers sworn in under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without signing the coalition agreement and holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Slovenia.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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