Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the May meeting?
Probability
49¢
1h
-5.7pp
24h
+12.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$415.64
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 786.7h
- 05:16SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 787h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 49¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.2pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.7pp
to 46¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.2pp
to 46¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 46¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.6pp
to 46¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 46¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.1pp
to 46¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.4pp
to 47¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 37¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.4pp
to 39¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.1pp
to 42¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.3pp
to 42¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 42¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.4pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.3pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.7pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.6pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.2pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.2pp
to 54¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.4pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the repo rate resulting from the South African Reserve Bank’s May Monetary Policy Committee meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the South African Reserve Bank after its May 28, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank meeting schedule: https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar This market may resolve as soon as the South African Reserve Bank's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the repo rate resulting from the South African Reserve Bank’s May Monetary Policy Committee meeting, relatAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (31.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).