Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17.5m?
Probability
2¢
1h
-1.7pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$5.3K
Liquidity
$4.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 51.8h
- 08:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 52h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
4- 28¢+22.0pp
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?
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Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?
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- 3¢-18.3pp
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 19m?
Entertainment · Vol $10.0K
- 63¢-2.5pp
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (April 24 - April 26) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.the-numbers.com/Ambiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 27, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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