Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$43.1K
Liquidity
$53.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 21h.
- 02Resolution proximity
Expiry in 21h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 21 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 20.9h
- 03:05SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 21h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UAE government and the GCC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
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