Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-there-be-1-var-decisions-overturned-during-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-20260610211929119 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-there-be-1-var-decisions-overturned-during-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-20260610211929119/markdown.

SportsExpires —

Creator

Will there be 10+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability

98¢

-0.3pp

24h

-0.3pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$201.38

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: —
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

98¢

Jun 11, 2026, 18:00 UTCJun 14, 2026, 15:08 UTC

updated 15:08:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T15-08Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor

01
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $201 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: —
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Official FIFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive

Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Official FIFA data

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will there be 10+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will there be 10+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.

Biggest hourly move: +37.8pp at 06:00 (to 98¢).

Show 3 hourly moves

09:00 · +3.8pp → 98¢
08:00 · +3.8pp → 98¢
06:00 · +37.8pp → 98¢

updated 15:08:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 15:08:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventWorld Cup: Number of VAR Stoppages

Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of Video Assistant Referee (VAR) reviews that cause a stoppage in play during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only VAR reviews that cause a stoppage in play are counted. A review that does not stop play does not count. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA and official broadcast partners; however, a consensus of credible reporting (including Opta data) may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will there be 10+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 15:08:17 GMT, YES is priced at 98% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.3pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $14.77. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $201.38. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

4 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket