Will Thomas Welby win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 8144h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).