Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 10pp over 24h

  Now 9¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Volume pressure

  Heavy volume on this book — 2.0× turnover

  $30.4k traded against $15.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

• 03
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Expires in 46h. No explicit resolution source listed.

• 04
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $15.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping around May 14-15, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping hug at any point during this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. The summit begins when Donald Trump enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. The summit ends once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. This market may resolve once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the summit. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.