Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Probability
84¢
1h
+13.5pp
24h
+28.5pp
24h Vol
$99.00
Liquidity
$2.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+45.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 28pp over 24h
Now 84¢; +13.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4616h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4616.2h
- 15:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4616h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.0pp
to 84¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 65¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 63¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 63¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 64¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 64¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 64¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 60¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 60¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 60¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 62¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 62¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 56¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 57¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 57¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 57¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.0pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 43.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 37.5pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 42.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 51¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 45¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title. If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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