Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
Probability
18¢
1h
-0.6pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$63.18
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4616h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 27.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4615.9h
- 16:05SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4616h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.7pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 12¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title. If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (27.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).