Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April 2026?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
-0.8pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$14.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $14.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 102.1h
- 17:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.9pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.5pp at 3d ago (to 2¢).
Show all 44 hour-by-hour ticks
- 1d ago · -6.2pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -6.2pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -5.9pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -5.8pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -5.3pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -6.1pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -4.1pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -4.3pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -4.4pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -4.4pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -4.4pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -5.4pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -5.4pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -4.7pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -6.1pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -6.3pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -5.7pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -6.3pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -4.8pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -6.5pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -5.9pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -4.9pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -5.0pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -5.1pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -4.3pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -5.8pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -5.9pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -5.6pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -4.7pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -5.7pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -4.5pp → 3¢
- 3d ago · -4.6pp → 5¢
- 4d ago · -3.4pp → 5¢
- 4d ago · -3.4pp → 5¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.