PoliticsExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April 2026?

Probability

1h

-0.3pp

24h

-0.8pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$14.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:51
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $14.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 102.1h

    LOW
  • 17:51Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 102h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.9pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -6.5pp at 3d ago (to 2¢).

Show all 44 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 1d ago · -6.2pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · -6.0pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · -6.2pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · -5.9pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · -5.8pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · -5.3pp → 4¢
  • 1d ago · -6.1pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -6.0pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -4.1pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -4.3pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -4.4pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -4.4pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -4.4pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 4¢
  • 2d ago · -5.4pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -5.4pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -4.7pp → 3¢
  • 2d ago · -6.1pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -6.3pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -6.0pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -5.7pp → 2¢
  • 2d ago · -6.3pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -4.8pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -6.5pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -5.9pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -4.0pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -5.5pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -5.5pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -4.9pp → 3¢
  • 3d ago · -5.0pp → 3¢
  • 3d ago · -5.1pp → 3¢
  • 3d ago · -4.3pp → 3¢
  • 3d ago · -5.8pp → 3¢
  • 3d ago · -5.9pp → 3¢
  • 3d ago · -5.6pp → 3¢
  • 3d ago · -4.7pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -5.7pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -5.5pp → 2¢
  • 3d ago · -4.5pp → 3¢
  • 3d ago · -4.6pp → 5¢
  • 4d ago · -3.4pp → 5¢
  • 4d ago · -3.4pp → 5¢
  • 4d ago · -4.0pp → 6¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between April 1, and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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