Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?
Probability
6¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
-11.5pp
24h Vol
$569.79
Liquidity
$45.8K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 6¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 11.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 11¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 697.0h
- 23:00SignalMEDIUM
Momentum down
Probability moved down 11.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.
Price movement
-11.5pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 10¢-11.0
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 21¢-0.5
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 52¢-1.0
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026?
Politics · Vol $60.07
- 6¢-12.5
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?
Politics · Vol $686.75
- 32¢-5.5
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 80¢+0.5
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?
Politics · Vol $402.13
- 43¢0.0
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in May 2026?
Politics · Vol $2.36
- 33¢-2.5
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in May 2026?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 100¢+75.4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Geopolitics · Vol $2.6M
- 100¢+55.5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Geopolitics · Vol $968.8K
- 6¢-0.5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Geopolitics · Vol $914.4K
- 23¢+4.0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $882.9K
- 3¢-0.9
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Geopolitics · Vol $782.4K
- 9¢+1.0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $678.4K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between May 1, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.