Will Trump name "Delcy" in April?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$104.23
Liquidity
$46.18
Probability (last 7 days)
-37.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 103.1h
- 16:56SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:56PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 12¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 13¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 17¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 16¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 16¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 19¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not stated explicitly — read the full market rules below.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.