Will Trump say "Pope" or "Leo" this week? (April 20 - 26)

1. 1

   Up 5pp over 24h

   Now 27¢; -20.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 6h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 30.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

4. 4

   Expiry in 6h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between April 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.