Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?
Probability
23¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$214.18
Liquidity
$117.48
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-29.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 23¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 27h. No explicit resolution source listed.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $117 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 27 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredIdentify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome.
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 15, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 26.6h
- 01:21SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 27h. No explicit resolution source listed.
Price movement
-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.
Biggest hourly move: -25.5pp at 01:20 (to 23¢).
Show top 8 of 66 hourly moves
- 01:20 · -25.5pp → 23¢
- 00:00 · -21.0pp → 23¢
- 22:00 · -21.5pp → 21¢
- 21:00 · -21.5pp → 21¢
- 20:00 · -24.0pp → 21¢
- 19:00 · -18.5pp → 22¢
- Jun 13, 00:00 UTC · -23.0pp → 29¢
- Jun 12, 07:00 UTC · -17.5pp → 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between June 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
uraniumReason
Uranium / nuclear-material markets are Geopolitics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 01:21:45 GMT, YES is priced at 23% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -7.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and -29.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 15, 2026 (2026-06-15T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$214.18 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $511.55. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $117.48. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.