Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 3pp over 24h

  Now 0¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 14.3¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions. Qualifying actions include but are not limited to: - A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city. - An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city. - A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized). - An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city. Non-qualifying actions include: - Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement - Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city. - Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location. - A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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