Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$16.44
Liquidity
$11.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $11.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 103.9h
- 16:05SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:04PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 7¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 7¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 7¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 7¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual talks with Donald Trump between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". A talk is defined as any interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).