PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 9, 2026
Creator

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?

Probability

58¢

1h

-4.0pp

24h

+12.0pp

24h Vol

$2.8K

Liquidity

$2.0K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 9, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026
Link
natesilver.net
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 30, 2026, 19:00May 4, 2026, 14:48
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 12pp over 24h

    Now 58¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 105.2h

    LOW
  • 14:48Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+12.0pp over the last 24h, now 58¢.

Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 1d ago (to 48¢).

Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
  • 13:00 · +10.5pp → 60¢
  • 15:00 · +12.5pp → 48¢
  • 1d ago · +12.0pp → 47¢
  • 1d ago · +14.0pp → 49¢
  • 1d ago · +12.5pp → 48¢
  • 1d ago · +12.5pp → 48¢
  • 1d ago · +12.5pp → 48¢
  • 1d ago · +22.0pp → 48¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventTrump approval rating on May 8?
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 8, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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