Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?
Probability
34¢
1h
+13.5pp
24h
+16.5pp
24h Vol
$26.94
Liquidity
$12.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+14.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 17pp over 24h
Now 34¢; +13.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 730h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $12.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 730.2h
- 13:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 730h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 20¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 20¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 20¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 20¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 20¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 21¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 28¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 27¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 27¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 25¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 25¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 26¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 14¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 15¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 9¢-1.0pp
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be below 600,000 voters?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 16¢0.0pp
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 900,000 and 1,200,000 voters?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 28¢-7.1pp
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 13¢+2.0pp
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,500,000 and 1,800,000 voters?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 9¢-2.1pp
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,800,000 and 2,100,000 voters?
Politics · Vol $35.29
- 1¢0.0pp
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,100,000 and 2,400,000 voters?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 2¢-0.3pp
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 2,400,000 and 2,700,000 voters?
Politics · Vol $40.00
- 1¢-0.3pp
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be 2,700,000 voters or greater?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $2.6M
- 3¢-1.1pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $640.2K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $559.5K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $454.7K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $372.9K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $346.1K
Market Description
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).