Will Unai Emery be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.5pp
24h Vol
$90.39
Liquidity
$802.61
Probability (last 7 days)
-29.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 9¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6008.7h
- 15:13SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6009h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 9¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 9¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 8¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 8¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 8¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 8¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 8¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 8¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 8¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 8¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 8¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 8¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 8¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 8¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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