Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Probability
7¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
-1.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$9.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 7¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3530h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3530.3h
- 21:40SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3530h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.3pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.2pp at 3d ago (to 10¢).
Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
- 2d ago · +6.9pp → 8¢
- 3d ago · +8.0pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · +8.0pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · +7.6pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · +6.9pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · +7.1pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · +7.0pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · +8.2pp → 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 20, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryRussian governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.