Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?
Probability
90¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
+5.0pp
24h Vol
$4.1K
Liquidity
$12.6K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://wwwLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 90¢; -0.7pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $12.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://wwwLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 675.9h
- 20:04SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+5.0pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast is equal to or above the specified price for any day between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the daily finalized free-market USD exchange rate as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Revisions or corrections to daily figures indicating a qualifying exchange rate will be considered only if they occur before all relevant figures for this market have been finalized. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). Resolution will occur once the final exchange rate data point of the specified timeframe is finalized. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Alerts
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