SportsExpires Sep 1, 2026
Creator

Will Valencia qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?

Probability

49¢

1h

+3.0pp

24h

+4.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$4.70

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UEFA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (97.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+26.5pp 7d
Apr 28, 2026, 08:00May 5, 2026, 07:03
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 49¢; +3.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 97.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 2848.9h

    LOW
  • 07:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.

Biggest hourly move: -40.0pp at 08:00 (to 10¢).

Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
  • 03:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
  • 02:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
  • 00:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
  • 22:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
  • 20:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
  • 19:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
  • 18:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
  • 17:00 · -40.0pp → 10¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLaLiga: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Europa League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Europa League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Europa League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 LaLiga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Europa League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the LaLiga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

3 wallets
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