Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?
Probability
16¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$20.00
Liquidity
$2.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1575.3h
- 08:41SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1575h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).