Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1567h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $4.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.