Will Young Kim advance from the CA-40 primary election?
Probability
48¢
1h
-7.5pp
24h
-22.5pp
24h Vol
$110.06
Liquidity
$67.61
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 23pp over 24h
Now 48¢; -7.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 893h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 46.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 892.7h
- 19:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 893h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-20.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.0pp at 11:00 (to 69¢).
Show all 6 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -9.0pp → 47¢
- 17:00 · -5.0pp → 51¢
- 16:00 · +8.5pp → 66¢
- 15:00 · +8.5pp → 66¢
- 13:00 · +20.0pp → 70¢
- 11:00 · +20.0pp → 69¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 40th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- sos.ca.govOfficial government sourceextracted · highsos.ca.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (46.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.